Technical - Time Projection

- Most ABC corrections are complete in the 38% to 62& time retracement zone
MAX time retracement to complete complex correction is 100%
- Alternate Time Projection (ATP) for correction : 62%, 100% & 162%
Time range measured from O to A & projected from Wave B
- Time range of recent low-low cycles to identify next probable low & vice versa
- High Probability Trading Strategies by Robert C. Miner stopped at Page 118. Read stop at Page 173.

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Technical - Alternate Price Projection (APP)

- APP compares swings in the same direction.
- An APP which does not fall relatively near a retracement only signals minor support/resistance.
- Reversals are highly probable in relatively narrow-range zone formed by retracements (internal & external) & APPs. Use stochastics to reinforce.
- End of Wave C Price Target Projection in order of importance
1. Internal Retracement: 38%, 50%, 61.8%
2. APP of Wave A: 62%, 100% & 162%
FIBO O-A & project from B to identify to identify a probable target for the next swing up that may complete a correction
3. External retracement of Wave B: 127%, 162& & 262%
- End of Wave 5 Price Prohection in order of importance
1. APP of waves 1 to 3 from Wave 4: 38.2%, 62% & 100%
2. APP of Wave 1 from Wave 4: 100%
3. External Retracement of Wave 4: 126%, 162% & 262%

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Technical - Elliott Wave

Correction
- Will not take out the extreme that began the prior trend and make new low/high.
- Usually at least 3 sections
- Wave C should exceed Wave A extreme, MKT makes a new low/high and then trades back into the range of the prior section (Reinforce with stochastics momentum reversal), MKT trades beyond Wave B extreme signals correction should be complete.

Trend
- Usually at least 5 sections
- Wave 2 cannot trade beyond beginning of Wave 1, Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Wave 4 cannot make a daily close into closing range of Wave 1.
- If a correction is greater in time & price than any previous correction of the trend section, it is counted as a completed wave. When a trend is complete, a correction greater than Wave 2 or Wave 4 corrections should be made.
- MKT trades beyond Wave 3 extreme, trend is in final stage. Use stochastics momentum reversal to reinforce Wave 5 position. MKT trade beyond Wave 4 signals the end of the 5 wave trend.
- A complete trend is followed up by either a correction or new trend in opposite direction

Wave 2 = .618 to .786 of wave 1
Wave 3 = 1.618 of wave 1
Wave 4 = .236 to .382 of wave 3
Wave B = .618 to 1,382 of wave A
Wave C = 1 to 1.618 of wave A



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Technical - Stochastics

1. 5 min chart
EMA55 UP, stochastics distinctly in oversold zone
2. Both stochastics lines goes to neutral zone
3. 1 min chart
EMA55 up
Entry: long at momentum bullish reversal
4. 5 min chart
Exit: Momentum bearish reversal in overbought zone

Analysis: +17, +21, +8

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Technical - Pivot Point Indicator

PP = Central pivot point
M4 = Middle of R2 & R1
M3 = Middle of PP & R1
M2 = Middle of PP & S1
M1 = Middle of S2 & S1

Uptrend
- Profit Target = (Middle of R2 & R1) to R2
- Bottom = (Middle of PP & S1) to PP
Downtrend
- Profit Target = (Middle of S2 & S1) to S2
- Top = (Middle of PP & R1) to PP

Reversal & breakouts tend to occur when london session open/close

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Technical - News release

Traders limit their exposure & a clear range develops days before a major news release.
1. Trendlines to determine prevailing MKT trend
2. 1 piece of news is generally not enough to reverse a clear trend. Do not trade if current MKT direction opposes prevailing MKT trend or news release.
3. Using 1 min chart, enter a trade when price bounce on EMA, Bollinger or Fibo after retrace OR after break of horizontal line
4. Avoid placing stops
5. Take 1st profit at 10 pips
6. Close trade position when default MACD signals a change in trend or 6 pips from critical lines

Sniper trade?
MKT direction is determined by 3 continuous candles on 1 min chart?

Beat the Forex Dealer by Agustin Silvani
- If the US FOMC (Federal MKT Open Committee) interest rate statement was in line with MKT Xpectations, price will return to pre-announcement level. Use 15min chart, identify stop loss level & go along with dealers.

High Probability Trading by Marcel Link
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Technical - Long Candle Strategy

Conditions: Candles with at least 12 pips from previous candle end TOWARDS critical lines (previous highs/lows, round numbers, pivots etc), M5 chart, candle at least 5 pips, candle & wicks more than 10 pips, wick in same direction less than 8 pips, 55EMA same direction as candle
Entry: After retrace, less than 5 same candles (note multiples)
Stop loss: top of candle
Profit target: Price momentum X-over or 10 pips towards critical lines (8 pips for candle opposing direction of overall trend)

wick in same direction less than a certain number of pips indicate reversal?
Candles with at least 1 pips TOWARDS critical lines to exclude wicks?

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Technical - Unused Strategies

1. http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/currencyHoliday.php?ib_entity=llc
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
2. Draw lines at Round number
3. Take note of pivots
4. At least 1 primary & 1 secondary signals to open a trade
Primary: Fibo coincide w pivot
Secondary: price momentum X-over, perfect order with 21 EMA slope more than 45 degrees, CCI divergence to reinforce breakout from trendline
5. Stop loss
HT of previous candle, breakout point, 7 pips from Fibo
6. Exit if primary signals occured before secondary signals
Primary: Area of long wicks (3 wicks of more than 7 pips), wicks of 10 pips, 5 pips from trendline
Secondary: previous high/low, price momentum X-over, pivot, correction overlap line
Tertiary: Fibo

M30 new long trend
1. D1 indicates down trend
2. MACD line X below signal line at top of peak (No trading for X-ing near zero line)
3. EMA6 X below EMA23, EMA23 X below EMA50 by at least 30 pips.
4. Sell when
- Price bounces at EMA23 after retrace
- MACD below zero

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Books

Tactical Forex Trading by Wayne Mcdonell
- Minimum Acceptable Performance of USD50 per day is required for me to switch to full time trading as of 2010
- Divergence
MACD shape to be obvious
- If you can only afford 1 lot short trade for USD, check EUR/GBP. If EUR/GBP DN, long GBP/USD.
- EUR/USD is -0.98 correlated with USD/CHF
- The larger the angle & separation between the EMAs, the more favorable to trade and the more likely that critical lines will be broken.
- Speed of MKT also determined by which EMA the price is riding. (5EMA fastest)

Beat the Forex Dealer by Agustin Silvani
- Price spike takes out the stops set below the previous low
- Avoid placing stops close to/at round numbers
- Prices open on Sun NY time in the same prevailing direction as they closed on Fri evening. Direction may be reversed when Tokyo enters the MKT. Trade US pairs only, don't trade AUD or NZD crosses. Ensure no major news release in the weekends.
- Spike lower followed by sharp V-shaped recovery: Don't short

High Probability Trading Strategies by Robert Miner
- Adjust indicator lookback period so both fast & slow lines of indicator reaches OB or OS zone most of the time before a momentum reversal is made. Shorter lookback period will result with momentum reversals closer to the price swing highs & lows but increase false momentum reversals. Don't trade if bull in OB zone or bear in OS zone for higher time frame momentum.

The Nature of Trends
- Sideway Trends: If the MKT retraces less than 78.6%, it will probably continue away from its originating boundary. Beyond 20% of boundary extremes, assume MKT resumed directional move.
- When the MKT accepts beyond A by 20% of A/B, we assume uptrend will continue. However, when MKT accepts prices beyond B by an amount greater than MAX extension, LCC & WPC forms, we assume trend has reversed. For M5 chart, WPC = 3 consecutive whole bars below B from uptrend to downtrend. LCC: +3 = breakout. Above breakout point, +1. Breach against new trend, -1.
- Primary Buy Zone (PBZ) in bull to bear trend: Low of B + (A - B)/8
Primary Sell Zone (PSZ) in bear to bull trend: High of B - (A - B)/8

7 Winning Strategies for Trading Forex by Grace Cheng
- Good bounce opportunity on 3rd or 4th point of contact for gradient of trendline less than 45 degrees with decent amount of open space between the connecting points and moving average slightly below ascending trendline.
- Open long position at 10 pips above hrly candle which closed beyond breakout level
- Place stop-buy entry 10 pips above horizontal resistance of ascending triangle.

High Probability Trading by Marcel Link
- Trade at M5 following H1 trend & stochastics
- ADX rising to 30 suggests breakout
- As volatility increases, stops have to be placed wider or they are likely to be hit

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Technical - Breakout

- Ignore the 1st breakout attempt
- Steep trendline is more likely followed by a breakout
- Use the end of wicks to form a secondary level below/above predominant level to determine breakout
- Confirm validity of breakout by checking with MACD & Stochastics to see if the trend is in agreement
- Double bottom/top formation, Head & shoulders (Previous trend must be in place)
- Symmetrical triangle
Conditions: 20EMA relatively flat
Entry: Break above trendline = Long, break below trendline = Short (Wicks break not considered, candle must be in correct direction at break)
Interim: Modify trendlines
Stop loss: below trend line
Exit: Pivot, fibonnaci, round numbers to 2 decimal places, add height of formation at widest to breakout point
- Fast & high amplitude price movement towards trend-line suggests that MKT sentiment is largely favoring a breakout
- Ascending/descending triangle: Diagonal support & horizontal resistance
Currency pair trending in same direction prior to formation of triangle pattern
- Pennants/flags
Conditions: Flags are usually slanted but they can be horizontal, flagpole has less candles than pennants and flags
Entry: 10% of flagpole (including wicks) to top of flagpole
Stop loss: 25% of flagpole
Exit: 100% of flagpole to top of flagpole

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Technical - Round Numbers

Conditions: M15 or M5 Chart, 1st bounce is best bounce, currency pair extends by at least 20 pips away from 20SMA towards round number at 1 decimal places (confirmation, optional), USD/CAD & GBP/USD more sensitive
Entry: 5 & 10 pips order from/at round number (1 decimal place for EUR/USD)
Stop loss: 20 pips
Profit Target: 5 pips
Exit: If trade not completed in 15 mins

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Technical - FX-Ed Uptrend Technique

1. D10EMA < D20EMA < D50EMA < D200EMA
2. D10EMA acting as resistance (candle bodies below line) on daily chart for at least 10 days
3. Entry: When candle touches D10EMA, no need to wait for candle to close
4. Stop loss: 50% of 14 period ATR (Average True Range) indicator above D10EMA
5. Modify stop loss everyday using step 4
6. Optional: Take partial profit when candle nears lower channel line of equidistant channel, or enter when candle nears upper channel line.

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Techical - Candlestick Reversal

Entry: Not for range bound MKT, candle of at least 6 pips, opposes established trend of at least 30 pips

Spinning tip
Entry: confirmation candle, wicks similar in length, each wick longer than body

Evening/morning star
Entry: star candle can be any color, small or no body, confirmation candle at least half length, large wick in opposite direction
Exit: Stochastics reach 80% or 20% level

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Technical - To investigate

- Always wait for retrace when you see 5 consecutive same trend candles for M5
- How to execute pending orders?
- Observations: Tendency for price to wandering at least twice at Fibo before breakout

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Technical - M5 New Down Trend Technical Strategy

1. MACD indicates a down trend & goes below zero
2. EMA10 & EMA20 X & indicate down trend
3. Sell when
- price retraces & is on the verge to move downwards (Place pending order?)
- close to EMA10
4. Use trendline, round numbers (2 decimal places), EMA, 150% risk-reward or pivots to determine target profit & stop-loss, whichever is less rewarding
5. Move stop-loss to entry price once unrealized profit = stop-loss in terms of number of pips
6. When EMA10 & 20 are going to X & current trend will continue with momentum on M30 chart, monitor & change target profit based on M30 chart.
7. Close position when EMA10 & 20 X, EMA 10 is breached with closed bar or when VALID morning doji star appears

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Technical - Long Swing Method

Weekly chart
1. Trendline, 3 moving average lines (13, 26, 52 periods) & long MACD indicate same trend
2. Stochastic X upward below 30% level indicate that major downward retracement may have bottomed out. Stochastic X downward above 70% level indicate that major upward retracement may have topped off.
3. Price candle supported by any of the moving average lines.
4. Switch to daily chart to monitor daily movement of following week for timing to enter trade & identify entry price

Daily chart
5. Default MACD & 2 pairs of moving average lines [10 & 40, 89 &144] indicate same trend as that on weekly chart
6. Stochastic upward crossing at below 50% level to enter BUY trade OR downward crossing at above 50% level to enter SELL trade. Moving average lines & long MACD indicate same trend as major trend.
7. Stochastic X on weekly chart indicates major trend is going to undergo major retracement. Bearish price candle at a distance above 13 week moving average line for major uptrend OR bullish price candle at a distance below 13 week moving average line for major downtrend.
8. Close trade position when default MACD indicates change in direction on daily chart.

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Technical - Ranging Market (1 hour chart)

- Upper & lower band of range formed by at least 2 price points each
- Both lines of Default & Long MACD give flat signals to indicate ranging market
- MIN trading range of 60 pips
- Check daily chart for direction of trend.
Uptrend - buy 75% when price near lower band of range and stochastic indicates an upward reversal
- Close trade position when stochastics indicates a downward reversal

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Technical - Candlestick

INDICATES REVERSAL, WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION FROM UPWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT CANDLE, DON'T SELL, BODY SMALLER THAN PREVIOUS CANDLE

Bullish Doji Star (Right)
Bullish Inverted Hammer (left): Very small or no lower wick

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Techical - Continue Down Trend Strategy

1. Default MACD indicates up trend
2. Long MACD & EMA23 indicate down trend
3. Price retraced up and is on the verge to move down
4. Buy close to EMA6
5. Stop-loss at EMA23 or EMA 50
6. Close position when EMA 6 & EMA 23 X

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Fundamentals - Trading Market Sentiment

"Short Format" of "Futures Only" for Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Commitment of Traders (COT) report released every Friday at 3.30pm Eastern Time on US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Plot chart with the difference between long and short commitments in Non-commercial category and look out for extremes in market sentiment.

EURO BULLISH EXTREME, SELL EUR/USD WHEN PRICE DN.

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Technical - Short Trade Fibonacci

For M5 @ -2 Magnification
1. Conditions
- At least 20 bars & 30 pips (5 horizontal squares)
- More than 135 degrees from horizontal (Less than 45 degrees for long trade)
- Price slows down as it approaches the retracement level
- Only trade in the direction of the overall trend determined from D1 & H1
- M1 for overbought/sold stochastics drop to neutral
2. Min 38.2% retracement level: Set stop-loss exit point at 50% retracement level (Must set stop-loss in case d/c or value jump), set profit target exit point at 5% retracement level.
3. If trade continues to short beyond profit target exit point of -5%, analyse the previous retracement of that trend with fibonacci extension to check if the trade would short to the 161.8%. If yes, shift stop-loss down to previous 0%.

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Fundamental - Breaking News

- CHF & CAD considered safe-haven currencies.
TERRORISM, USD SS UP, USD VALUE DN, CHF DD UP, CHF VALUE UP.
- JPY is closely related to CNY.
- Non farm payroll released on 1st Friday of each month indicate strenth of US economy

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Fundamental - Stock MKT

US S&P500 UP, FOREIGN CURRENCIES SS UP, USD DD UP, USD VALUE UP.

US S&P500 UP, EUR/JPY UP (88% correlation)

Germany DAX UP, EUR/JPY UP (87% correlation)

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Fundamental - US Debt & Interest Rate

US debt is tracked & catalogued through the Treasury International Capital (TIC) system. TIC data is usually released by the Department of the Treasury on the 11th day of the month at 9am Eastern time. US holds almost half of the total US debt.

US interest rates have a more direct effect on USD value than other fundamental factors.

INFLATION RATE UP, US SELL US DEBT TO FOREIGN GOVERNMENT, FOREIGN CURRENCY SS UP, FOREIGN CURRENCY VALUE DN, USD SS DN & DD UP, USD VALUE UP, LESS $ IN ECONOMY, ECONOMY DN, US INTEREST RATE UP, INVESTORS IN US DEBT UP, ECONOMY DN because more EX to borrow $.

INFLATION RATE DN, US INTEREST RATE DN, USD VALUE DN

Confirmation of USD trend: Foreign governments confident USD bullish trend to continue, investment in US assets DN.

CNY UP, USD DD DN, USD VALUE DN

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Fundamental - Balance of Trade (BOT)

Export > Import = + BOT
Export < Import = - BOT

- INCREASE IN US BOT, USD SS UP, USD VALUE DN

USD VALUE UP, IMPORTS UP due to goods from other countries less EX.
USD VALUE DN, EXPORTS UP due to US goods less EX.

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Fundamental - Commodities

OIL
- Oil is priced and sold in USD.
- Japan imports nearly 100% of its oil. US imports more oil from Canada than any other country.
- OIL PRICE UP, S&P500 DN (Counter scenario), YEN SS UP for conversion into USD to buy oil, YEN DD DN as less people can afford more EX JAP GDS, YEN VALUE DN, USD DD UP, USD VALUE UP, USD/JPY UP.
- OIL PRICE UP, USD SS UP to buy oil from Canada, USD VALUE DN, CAD DD UP, CAD VALUE UP, USD/CAD DN. (92% correlation)

Gold
- GOLD PRICE UP, AUD/USD UP. (78% correlation)

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Learning - Fibonacci Extensions

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Learning - Fibonacci Retracements

Stocks will often pull back or retrace a percentage of the previous move before reversing. These Fibonacci retracements often occur at 38.2% & 61.8% level.

Do not automatically buy the stock just because it is at a common retracement level. Wait and look for candlestick patterns to develop at the 38.2% area. If you do not see any signs of a reversal, then it may go down to the 50% area. Look for a reversal there. You do not know if or when the stock will reverse at a Fibonacci level. Just mark these areas on a chart and wait for signal to go long or short.



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Technical - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD)

MACD turns two trend-following indicators, moving averages, into a momentum oscillator by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average.

A bullish centerline crossover occurs when MACD moves above the zero line to turn positive. A bearish centerline crossover occurs when MACD moves below the zero line to turn negative.

MACD: 21, 55, 8
Stochastics: 8, 3, 5

The term stochastic refers to the location of a current price in relation to its price range over a period of time.This method attempts to predict price turning points by comparing the closing price of a security to its price range.



1. MACD trading in opposite direction of MKT signal that trend is due for reversal.
2. BUY: MACD line X above signal line
SELL: MACD line X below signal line

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Technical - Moving Averages

Basic Chart Setup

Speed 21/55 EMAs
Momentum 8 SMA & 5 EMA

Steep angle & wide separation of the MAs indicate strong momentum

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